County revenue forecast sunnier than anticipated

County officials are about to start preparing the county’s next three-year rolling budget, and revised revenue projections for the next three fiscal years show that the property value decline may be tapering — meaning there is expected to be more available funds than originally anticipated.

County officials expect total general fund revenues will be about $386.4 million for Fiscal Year (FY) 2012, with about $193.4 million of that coming from property and other taxes. In addition, the county is expected to tap the fund balance for about $14.2 million to bring total general purpose revenues up to $400.6 million.

Officials initially expected to bring in $374.2 million in FY 2012, which begins on Oct. 1, 2011 and runs through Sept. 30, 2012.

For FY 2013, which begins Oct. 1, 2012, revised estimates indicate that $357.7 million will be brought in, with $191.4 million of that coming from property and other taxes. Officials had anticipated bringing in $343.4 million. They also expect FY 2013 to use a $44.7 million infusion from the fund balance to bring total estimated revenues up to $402.4 million.

That fiscal year ends on Sept. 30, 2013.

In FY 2014, nearly $358 million in revenue is expected, with $191.4 million of that coming from property and other taxes. Figures are not currently available for any possible use of fund balance monies.

The Board of Commissioners and other county officials are still trying to determine how proposals coming out of Lansing — including Gov. Rick Snyder’s plans to overhaul the statutory state shared revenue system in favor of one that doles out dollars based on communities’ willingness to adopt governmental reforms — will impact the bottom line in Oakland County.

“We are starting to look at that and focus on it,” said Chairman Mike Gingell (R-Lake Orion).

And although projected declines in state equalized values haven’t been “as severe” as was originally expected, Gingell said that even if economic conditions improve under Proposal A, it’s going to be between five and 10 years before the stormy fiscal climate is weathered.

Tim Soave, Oakland County’s manager of Fiscal Services, said the spikes in revenue from earlier projects were “almost all” relative to property tax revenues.

“The values are still going down, unfortunately, but they are not (going down as fast as we had projected),” he said.

For FY 2011, officials expected a 12-percent reduction; instead, it was about 9 percent. For FY 2012, an expected 5-percent reduction turned out to be only 3 percent. For FY 2013, officials projected a 2.5-percent reduction, but revised estimates peg that drop to 1 percent.